The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's first public common-equity offering for a regulated exchange listing is publicly confirmed at or before 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
Confirmation occurs when any of these becomes public: a securities regulator approves or clears the required filing for the public offering; the company or underwriters publish final share count and offering price; or the exchange assigns a ticker and grants unconditional listing approval.
Conditional exchange approval qualifies only when the exchange publicly confirms all conditions satisfied. These triggers are independent. All triggers require a qualifying offering. Filing or confidential submission, a proposed price range, ticker reservation, or intent alone do not qualify. Trading need not begin by the deadline.
Issuer identity and offering structure are assessed when each trigger becomes public. Prior trading means trading before that trigger, excluding trading resulting from that offering. Later restructuring, delay, withdrawal, or cancellation does not undo qualifying confirmation; corrections may show it never qualified.
Name changes of the same issuer count; offerings by a parent, subsidiary, or acquirer do not. Prior public common-equity trading on a regulated exchange disqualifies the company, even if later taken private.
Prior trading outside a regulated exchange disqualifies it if retail investors could buy and sell its common equity without investor qualification requirements, invitation, or issuer approval. Routine account opening and identity checks do not restrict access.
A direct listing providing for newly issued common shares to be sold to the public qualifies; a resale-only direct listing does not. SPAC transactions, reverse mergers, private placements, and offerings of debt, preferred shares, or depositary receipts without a common-equity IPO do not qualify.
Evidence and corrections must be public by seven days after 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC; resolution occurs only after that cutoff. They establish whether a qualifying confirmation was public by the deadline. Official source priority is regulator, company, exchange, then underwriters. Priority resolves contradictions about the same fact; silence does not negate another source's confirmation.
Unresolved conflicts at the highest applicable priority leave a fact unestablished. Otherwise, at least two independent reputable news organizations' original reports may establish missing facts if reputable reporting has no unresolved material contradiction. Syndicated copies count as one. Reporting cannot override official facts or resolve official conflicts; rumors do not qualify.
This market is not sponsored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with any entity referenced. Names and trademarks are descriptive only.
